Which Party will Control the House and Senate After the 2022 Midterm Election?

United States Flag Flying over the House of Representatives

The 2022 midterm elections are a little over a year away. Political betting sites have posted early futures odds for a handful of markets, and the candidates are starting to announce their campaigns. There are still many uncertainties out there, but we can begin handicapping certain races – and, as this article does, the number of congressional seats in total that will switch parties.

Even without knowing the exact opponents for each race, there’s quite a bit we can forecast based on historical trends and metrics like the president’s approval rating. The party in the White House usually loses seats in Congress no matter what, but that’s especially true when the president’s approval numbers are plummeting like Biden’s.

On this page, we’re going to look at both major parties’ current odds of controlling either chamber of Congress after the midterm elections – on November 8, 2022.

There are 469 congressional seats up for grabs:

Since 2020, the Democratic Party has controlled the presidency and the House, while the Senate is split 50-50, with the Vice President acting as the tie-breaking vote, effectively giving them a majority in the upper chamber.

The betting odds featured below were obtained from Bovada’s US politics section. However, you can find similar 2022 midterms prop bets at all the top online betting sites.

Which Party Will Control the US House of Representatives After 2022 Midterms?

American Odds

Matchup Odds
Republican Party -250
Democratic Party +185

The Democrats expected a much bigger cushion in the US House of Representatives heading into the 2022 midterms. Consensus on the left said that the Democratic Party would extend their 35-seat margin over the GOP.

  • Before November 3, 2020 – which saw Joe Biden defeat the incumbent President Trump – Democrats held a 232-197 advantage in the lower chamber (five seats were vacant; a Libertarian owned one).
  • Instead, the Republicans cut into the Dem’s slight majority, closing the gap to 222-213 — a margin of only nine seats. It has since narrowed further to only four seats.
  • Democrats flipped three GOP seats, while Republicans flipped 15, one of which was held by a Libertarian.

On November 8, 2022, all 435 House seats will be up for election.

If historical trends are to be believed, the Democrats are due to lose more after the midterms. Several critical factors are working against them:

  • Joe Biden’s approval rating is in the tank. Forty-nine percent disprove of the job he’s doing, versus only 44.6 percent who approve. The party out of power tends to gain seats in the midterms in a president’s first term regardless, but low approval ratings often correlate to substantial losses. Biden would need to raise his approval rating to at least 50% for the Democrats to remain competitive.
  • Republicans were primarily in control of redistricting.
  • Democrats’ voter registration numbers are hurting. The Hill reported they’re down “in Florida by more than 200,000, in North Carolina by more than 135,000, and in Pennsylvania by more than 200,000.”

For all these reasons and more, Republican candidates are expected to flip enough seats to take majority control of the US House of Representatives. The oddsmakers have the GOP as –250 favorites – an implied probability of 71.43%.

House of Representatives

If you’re looking to bet on individual House races, look up “The 52% Club.” They’re a group of districts identified by Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight where the incumbent won reelection in 2020 by less than 52% of the vote. Ellis says these districts will be “some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections.”

I’d put my money on the Republican Party to control the House after the 2022 midterms at –250, and I suspect those odds will only shorten over the next year.

Which Party Will Control the US Senate After 2022 Midterms?

Matchup Odds
Republican Party -115
Democratic Party -115

In November 2022, 34 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election. Fourteen of the contested seats are currently occupied by Democrats; Republicans hold the other 20. As you can see from the betting lines, control of the upper chamber of Congress is more in question.

GOP candidates are defending two of the seats in states that elected Joe Biden in 2020 (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). None of the Democrats’ 14 Senate seats on the 2022 ballot are located in states Trump carried.

Last year, the Democratic Party gained three seats in the Senate, bringing their caucus total to 50 – tied with the Republicans. Vice President Kamala Harris gives the Democrats the deciding vote and thus control of the chamber.

According to Inside Elections, the following locations are rated as “battleground states” for the 2022 elections cycle. These states are all rated “toss-up,” “lean Democrat/Republican,” or “likely Democrat/Republican,” by the Cook Political Report:

  • Arizona
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • North Carolina
  • Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin

These are consistent with the ten seats that CNN says are the “most likely to flip in 2022.” Here are ten incumbents’ seats that you should watch between now and next November, as they may be changing party:

  • Pennsylvania – Pat Toomey (Republican)
  • Georgia – Raphael Warnock (Democrat)
  • Wisconsin – Ron Johnson (Republican)
  • Arizona – Mark Kelly (Democrat)
  • North Carolina – Richard Burr (Republican)
  • New Hampshire – Maggie Hassan (Democrat)
  • Nevada – Catherine Cortez Masto (Democrat)
  • Florida – Marco Rubio (Republican)
  • Ohio – Rob Portman (Republican)
  • Missouri – Roy Blunt (Republican)

Of those ten seats, six are currently occupied by Republicans – four of whom are retiring and not seeking reelection. That said, it’s important to remember that CNN tends to favor Democrats and might be overly optimistic about their chances.

Today, picking the Republican Party at –115 to win control of the US Senate in 2022 is the better bet. They’re going to benefit from Joe Biden’s plummeting approval ratings and being the opposition party. Turnout is already lower for midterm elections, and supporters of the party out of power are usually angrier and more inspired to vote.