What Republicans Sweep of VA Elections Means for 2022 Midterms and Beyond

Flag of Virginia Flying next to the American Flag

  • Republicans swept Virginia on Tuesday, November 2, winning statewide for the first time in 12 years and making significant gains compared to their electoral performances during the Trump years.
  • One week before Tuesday’s election, incumbent Democrat Terry McAuliffe was a –275 favorite to retain the Virginia governorship.
  • The result signals more problems ahead for Democrats. If Virginia is any indication, Republicans will likely win back the House and the Senate next November – and possibly the White House in 2024.

Glenn Youngkin (R) Wins Virginia Gubernatorial Race

Things are trending downward for the Democratic Party. After a 2020 general election that saw them take control of the Senate and the White House and retain a slight majority in the House of Representatives, it would appear they’re in for some challenging election cycles between now and 2024.

On Tuesday, Virginia gave political bettor’s a look into the probable future.

Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin won the Virginia gubernatorial race, defeating Democratic incumbent Terry McAuliffe. In doing so, he became the first GOP candidate to win a statewide office in the Old Dominion since 2009.

  • Youngkin’s 2.5-point margin of victory represents an 11-point swing in the GOP’s favor from 4 years ago.
  • He also beat former President Donald Trump’s 2020 performance in every region of the state.
  • The upset was part of a larger GOP sweep of the state, with fellow Republicans Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares taking the elections for lieutenant governor and attorney general, respectively.
  • It also appears that the Republicans have taken at least 51 of the House of Delegates’ 100 seats, giving them control of the state’s lower chamber.

Why did Glenn Younkin win?

Since they became public, there’s been a rush to explain “why” this outcome happened. It’s an essential question for every political bettor to answer, as those explanations will be major deciders in the next two election cycles.

The reasons given have ranged from racism to “radical leftism” to a suburban backlash to Critical Race Theory. Everyone seems to have an answer that fits their political agenda.

I agree with The American Prospect in blaming Democrats and the Biden administration for failing to deliver on campaign promises. Here’s an excerpt from the website’s article, “Youngkin Owes Manchin His Thanks”:

“Some self-proclaimed moderates in both politics and the media have radically misdiagnosed the causes of the Great Democratic Nosedive of 2021. According to Mark Warner, one of Virginia’s two Democratic senators, and CNN’s Gloria Borger, House Democrats should have steamed ahead by passing the infrastructure bill—thereby leaving most of Biden’s agenda up in the air—and, in Borger’s view, should also have greatly pared back Biden’s Build Back Better bill because it was way too left.

“That’s not what the exit polls show to be what the Democrats did wrong, however. The Edison exit poll of Virginia, for instance, shows that voters age 45 and older supported Joe Biden in 2020 and Terry McAuliffe in 2021 at roughly the same rate: McAuliffe’s share of the vote among these voters was only about two percentage points lower than Biden’s. It was among voters under 45 that McAuliffe cataclysmically underperformed Biden, by roughly nine points at least.”

Glenn Youngkin Governor of Virginia

Later in the piece, Harold Meyerson asks the crucial questions:

“Now, do you think those sometime voters decided to stay home because the Democrats were too radical? Or did they stay home because the party that had promised them tangible improvements in their lives failed to deliver, and because McAuliffe’s campaign declined to focus on the kind of tangible improvements he’d make as governor?”

Whatever your feelings about the Virginia results, it’s impossible to see them as anything other than a harbinger of what’s to come.

So, how do we profit from these political trends moving forward?

Betting Forecast for the 2022 Midterms / 2024 General Elections

One of my favorite political handicapping resources, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, reported before Tuesday’s elections that “Virginia results have more often offered a preview of the future, fueling the belief that there is a straight-line connection between this off-year election and the next year’s midterm.”

Sabato continued: “3 of the last 4 Virginia elections did end up being bellwethers for the future.”

With that knowledge in hand, let’s look at some upcoming betting opportunities that Virginia’s results will impact.

2022 Midterms

In one year, Americans will go to the polls for the 2022 midterm elections, which will see 34 US Senate seats and the entire US House of Representatives up for grabs. Right now, the upper chamber is split 50-50 while the Democrats own a 6-seat advantage in the House.

With Virginia serving as a bell cow, the Republican Party is now favored to take control of both chambers of Congress after the midterms. Unfortunately, the lines have move sharply in the GOP’s direction since last Tuesday’s results were announced. Still, you might want to get your bets in early before they shift any further!

Who will control the House in 2022?

Matchup Odds
Republicans -700
Democrats +400

Who will control the Senate in 2022?

Matchup Odds
Republicans -200
Democrats +150

2024 General Elections

The Virginia gubernatorial election results also spell disaster for the Democrats in 2024. At the very least, it lessens the odds of a successful challenge coming from the Biden administration. If the DNC wants to field a legitimate candidate against the surging Republicans, they’ll need to look for options outside the White House.

Bet on Your Favorite Candidate at BetOnline!

BetOnline LogoIf you already know who you think is going to win the 2024 GOP Presidential Primary or just want to take advantage of early odds, be sure to place your bets at BetOnline.

2024 Presidential Candidate Betting Odds 2024 Presidential Candidate Betting Odds
Donald Trump Sr +250 Kristi Noem +6000
Joe Biden +350 Liz Cheney +6000
Kamala Harris +550 Michelle Obama +6500
Ron DeSantis +1050 Tom Cotton +6500
Pete Buttigieg +1600 Ivanka Trump +6500
Nikki Haley +1800 Marco Rubio +6500
Elizabeth Warren +2000 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +6600
Mike Pence +2250 Michael Bloomberg +6600
Tucker Carlson +2500 Cory Booker +6600
Amy Klobuchar +3300 Josh Hawley +6600
Andrew Yang +4000 Gretchen Whitmer +6600
Mike Pompeo +4000 Tim Scott +7500
Mark Cuban +5000 Donald Trump Jr +7500
Ted Cruz +5000 Mitt Romney +7500
Gavin Newsom +5000 Jeff Bezos +7500
Dwayne Johnson +6000 Dan Crenshaw +8000