- Republicans swept Virginia on Tuesday, November 2, winning statewide for the first time in 12 years and making significant gains compared to their electoral performances during the Trump years.
- One week before Tuesday’s election, incumbent Democrat Terry McAuliffe was a –275 favorite to retain the Virginia governorship.
- The result signals more problems ahead for Democrats. If Virginia is any indication, Republicans will likely win back the House and the Senate next November – and possibly the White House in 2024.
Glenn Youngkin (R) Wins Virginia Gubernatorial Race
Things are trending downward for the Democratic Party. After a 2020 general election that saw them take control of the Senate and the White House and retain a slight majority in the House of Representatives, it would appear they’re in for some challenging election cycles between now and 2024.
On Tuesday, Virginia gave political bettor’s a look into the probable future.
Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin won the Virginia gubernatorial race, defeating Democratic incumbent Terry McAuliffe. In doing so, he became the first GOP candidate to win a statewide office in the Old Dominion since 2009.
Why did Glenn Younkin win?
Since they became public, there’s been a rush to explain “why” this outcome happened. It’s an essential question for every political bettor to answer, as those explanations will be major deciders in the next two election cycles.
The reasons given have ranged from racism to “radical leftism” to a suburban backlash to Critical Race Theory. Everyone seems to have an answer that fits their political agenda.
I agree with The American Prospect in blaming Democrats and the Biden administration for failing to deliver on campaign promises. Here’s an excerpt from the website’s article, “Youngkin Owes Manchin His Thanks”:
“Some self-proclaimed moderates in both politics and the media have radically misdiagnosed the causes of the Great Democratic Nosedive of 2021. According to Mark Warner, one of Virginia’s two Democratic senators, and CNN’s Gloria Borger, House Democrats should have steamed ahead by passing the infrastructure bill—thereby leaving most of Biden’s agenda up in the air—and, in Borger’s view, should also have greatly pared back Biden’s Build Back Better bill because it was way too left.
“That’s not what the exit polls show to be what the Democrats did wrong, however. The Edison exit poll of Virginia, for instance, shows that voters age 45 and older supported Joe Biden in 2020 and Terry McAuliffe in 2021 at roughly the same rate: McAuliffe’s share of the vote among these voters was only about two percentage points lower than Biden’s. It was among voters under 45 that McAuliffe cataclysmically underperformed Biden, by roughly nine points at least.”
Later in the piece, Harold Meyerson asks the crucial questions:
“Now, do you think those sometime voters decided to stay home because the Democrats were too radical? Or did they stay home because the party that had promised them tangible improvements in their lives failed to deliver, and because McAuliffe’s campaign declined to focus on the kind of tangible improvements he’d make as governor?”
Whatever your feelings about the Virginia results, it’s impossible to see them as anything other than a harbinger of what’s to come.
So, how do we profit from these political trends moving forward?
Betting Forecast for the 2022 Midterms / 2024 General Elections
One of my favorite political handicapping resources, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, reported before Tuesday’s elections that “Virginia results have more often offered a preview of the future, fueling the belief that there is a straight-line connection between this off-year election and the next year’s midterm.”
Sabato continued: “3 of the last 4 Virginia elections did end up being bellwethers for the future.”
With that knowledge in hand, let’s look at some upcoming betting opportunities that Virginia’s results will impact.
In one year, Americans will go to the polls for the 2022 midterm elections, which will see 34 US Senate seats and the entire US House of Representatives up for grabs. Right now, the upper chamber is split 50-50 while the Democrats own a 6-seat advantage in the House.
With Virginia serving as a bell cow, the Republican Party is now favored to take control of both chambers of Congress after the midterms. Unfortunately, the lines have move sharply in the GOP’s direction since last Tuesday’s results were announced. Still, you might want to get your bets in early before they shift any further!
Who will control the House in 2022?
Who will control the Senate in 2022?
2024 General Elections
The Virginia gubernatorial election results also spell disaster for the Democrats in 2024. At the very least, it lessens the odds of a successful challenge coming from the Biden administration. If the DNC wants to field a legitimate candidate against the surging Republicans, they’ll need to look for options outside the White House.
Bet on Your Favorite Candidate at BetOnline!
If you already know who you think is going to win the 2024 GOP Presidential Primary or just want to take advantage of early odds, be sure to place your bets at BetOnline.
|2024 Presidential Candidate||Betting Odds||2024 Presidential Candidate||Betting Odds|
|Donald Trump Sr||+250||Kristi Noem||+6000|
|Joe Biden||+350||Liz Cheney||+6000|
|Kamala Harris||+550||Michelle Obama||+6500|
|Ron DeSantis||+1050||Tom Cotton||+6500|
|Pete Buttigieg||+1600||Ivanka Trump||+6500|
|Nikki Haley||+1800||Marco Rubio||+6500|
|Elizabeth Warren||+2000||Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez||+6600|
|Mike Pence||+2250||Michael Bloomberg||+6600|
|Tucker Carlson||+2500||Cory Booker||+6600|
|Amy Klobuchar||+3300||Josh Hawley||+6600|
|Andrew Yang||+4000||Gretchen Whitmer||+6600|
|Mike Pompeo||+4000||Tim Scott||+7500|
|Mark Cuban||+5000||Donald Trump Jr||+7500|
|Ted Cruz||+5000||Mitt Romney||+7500|
|Gavin Newsom||+5000||Jeff Bezos||+7500|
|Dwayne Johnson||+6000||Dan Crenshaw||+8000|