President Biden’s Approval Ratings and 2024 Re-Election Odds in Freefall

Joe Biden

Key Points:

  • After staying above 50% for the first eight months of his presidency, Joe Biden’s approval rating has been on a steady decline since mid-August. It’s now below 43% — one of the worst approval ratings on record for a Commander in Chief at this stage in their presidency.
  • President Biden’s approval rating totals line for the month of November now sits at an abysmal 41.5%, and the odds of him winning re-election are getting longer.
  • In response, politics oddsmakers are shifting Biden’s betting odds for the worst across numerous political props.

The honeymoon period is officially over for the Biden administration. Every meaningful poll number and metric is on the decline. The Democrats also took a massive loss in the Virginia gubernatorial election and came close to losing the governorship of typically blue New Jersey.

Everything is trending in the wrong direction for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.  And now, the downward spiral is being reflected in the political betting odds.

We’ll look at several instances of the current President’s betting lines moving on this page. Fortunately, we live in a time when online oddsmakers offer a wide range of political wagers all year long.

Gone are the days when betting politics was a novelty only available in presidential election years. I’ve isolated four opportunities to wager on Biden’s sagging approval ratings and national sentiment turning across the Democrats:

  • Over-under/totals line for Joe Biden’s approval rating on December 1,
  • The Odds of Biden completing his first term,
  • The 2024 Democratic primary,
  • And 2024 presidential election futures lines.

However, these aren’t the only relevant political prop bets available. You’ll find all kinds of exciting Joe Biden odds at the top political betting sites. In fact, some online bookmakers – such as BetOnline – have entire sections dedicated to President Biden props!

Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Totals

Matchup Odds
Over 41.5% -120
Under 41.5% -120

Perhaps the most shocking political story this fall is the sudden and steep drop of President Biden’s approval rating. For his first eight months in office, the 78-year-old former Democrat enjoyed relative popularity, with a rating that steadily hovered above 50%. Most political pundits pointed to this as proof that Americans were desperate for a calmer, less polarizing leader after four years of Donald Trump.

However, Biden may have taken it too far. Rather than constant controversy and bombastic tweeting, Joe Biden became the invisible President. He even set a record for going the longest time without answering questions from the press in recorded history.

Guy Holding Bills of Cash in Palm of Both Hands

Now, gas and food prices are skyrocketing, the economy is in shambles, and Biden is still nowhere to be found most of the time. Together, these factors and more contributed to Biden’s 43% approval rating, one of the worst of all-time for a president at this stage of their first term.

To get an idea of how quickly public sentiment is turning against President Biden, look at his approval rating totals line.

  • On August 17, the over-under for September 1 was set at 50%.
  • Three days later, it had fallen to 47.5%.
  • Ultimately, the “under” hit – on September 1. his FiveThirtyEight approval rating (the number political oddsmakers use for this bet) had fallen to 46.7%.

Now, with 20 days left in the month, the totals line for December 1 is all the way down to 41.5 percent.

Odds of President Biden Completing His First Term

Matchup Odds
Yes -165
No +125

Another prop bet I’ve watched closely asks whether the President will finish his first term in office. In the past, I’ve approached this topic from the perspective of his age and alleged ailing health. Now, I wonder if he’ll fold under the increased scrutiny.

(If Biden does resign from office, I suspect they’ll still blame his health, but the low approval ratings and negative impact he’ll have on Democratic candidates for the 2022 midterms will undoubtedly play a role in such a decision.)

  • When I wrote about Biden failing to complete his first term on June 28, the odds for “Yes” were at +200, and “No” was +150.
  • I covered the topic again on August 20, and “Yes” had dipped just slightly to –180, while “No” remained at +150.

Today, oddsmakers still think he’ll finish out the term, but his odds have dropped to –165 for “Yes.” Meanwhile, “No” has finally budged to +140.

Joe Biden still has three years and two months to go before Inauguration Day 2024.

His approval rating is in the mud, he’s not getting any younger, and on several occasions, the President has been caught sleeping during diplomatic events. There were even rumors that he defecated in his pants at the Vatican and couldn’t stop passing gas at the recent COP26 summit.

I’d say a bet on “No” at +140 is the most intelligent play right now. Get your picks in before Joe Biden’s odds of completing his term lengthen further!

2024 Democratic Primaries and Presidential Election Lines

Finally, let’s look ahead to President Biden’s 2024 futures lines. Surprisingly, these odds have moved in the Commander in Chief’s favor – though just barely.

Democratic Party Primaries

2024 Dem Candidate Betting Odds 2024 Dem Candidate Betting Odds
Kamala Harris +165 Sherrod Brown +5000
Joe Biden +165 Hillary Clinton +5000
Pete Buttigieg +500 Val Demings +6600
Elizabeth Warren +800 Michael Bloomberg +8000
Amy Klobuchar +1200 Tulsi Gabbard +8000
Stacey Abrams +3300 Andrew Yang +15000
Michelle Obama +3300 Kristen Gillibrand +15000
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +3300 Michael Bennet +15000
Gretchen Whitmer +3300 Andrew Cuomo +25000
Bernie Sanders +4000 Deval Patrick +30000
Cory Booker +4000 Tammy Baldwin +30000
Beto O’Rouke +5000 Tammy Duckworth +30000

When I wrote about the 2024 Democratic primary in March, Joe Biden’s odds of winning his party’s nomination again were sitting at +225. He was slightly trailing Vice President Kamala Harris, who was the frontrunner at +200.

Today, they’re both tied at +165.

While this line movement isn’t consistent with other Joe Biden props, it does represent an excellent opportunity to find betting value.

There’s no reason to believe the President has it in him to endure another presidential campaign in three years, at the age of 82. Everything we’ve discussed on this page suggests his presidency is hanging by a thread as it is.

And Kamala Harris is equally unpopular! This is a prime opportunity to put money on some long-shot candidates for sizable rewards. I highly recommend wagering on Pete Buttigieg at +500 and Elizabeth Warren at +800. Both bets will look like absolute steals at those prices by 2022.

2024 Presidential Election

2024 Candidate Betting Odds 2024 Candidate Betting Odds
Donald Trump Sr +250 Michelle Obama +6500
Joe Biden +400 Ted Cruz +6500
Kamala Harris +600 Tom Cotton +6500
Ron DeSantis +800 Kristi Noem +6500
Pete Buttigieg +1400 Ivanka Trump +6500
Nikki Haley +1800 Marco Rubio +6500
Elizabeth Warren +2000 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +6600
Mike Pence +2500 Michael Bloomberg +6600
Tucker Carlson +2800 Cory Booker +6600
Amy Klobuchar +3300 Josh Hawley +6600
Dwayne Johnson +3300 Gretchen Whitmer +6600
Mike Pompeo +4000 Tim Scott +8000
Andrew Yang +5000 Donald Trump Jr +8000
Mark Cuban +5000 Mitt Romney +8000
Glenn Youngkin +5000 Dan Crenshaw +8000
Gavin Newsom +5500 Jeff Bezos +8000

Earlier this year, Joe Biden was the 2024 frontrunner to win re-election at +550. He’s no longer the favorite, but his odds have shortened to +400 – we’re getting mixed signals from the handicappers!

I have the same advice for betting 2024 presidential election futures as I did for the Democratic primaries. Use this opportunity to find value elsewhere. The likelihood of Joe Biden running for re-election, much less winning, is minute.

If he’s too old and cognitively compromised to make public appearances and answer unscripted questions today, there’s no way he can endure another presidential campaign trail when he’s three years older. And that’s without taking his approval rating and poll numbers into account.

Bet on Your Favorite Candidate at BetOnline!

BetOnline LogoIf you already know who you think is going to win the 2024 GOP Presidential Primary or just want to take advantage of early odds, be sure to place your bets at BetOnline.

Again, everything is trending in the wrong direction for the Biden administration. Now is the perfect time to capitalize!

Rush to your favorite political betting website and get your picks in ASAP before it’s too late! Joe Biden’s approval rating drops a few more points with each passing day, taking his betting odds with them. Soon, there won’t be as much value in fading a President whose administration and political party are in freefall!