It’s October, always that infamous time of the year where your futures bet is in danger of losing you the hard-earned money you wagered.
This kind of stuff happens every single year. A busted futures bet often means you’re now going to need to try and salvage what you’re losing, but how?
You look at the current odds here in October and you crunch numbers. Okay, start off clean with a mid-season futures bet. That can’t hurt, right?
That’s risky, and there’s a chance those with better odds to win their division, make the playoffs, or even win the Super Bowl also collapse.
Not a good idea, so don’t even try a mulligan only to risk losing more money on futures betting.
Here’s what you can do, and should do.
Don’t Place Another NFL Futures Bet
Just take the loss as a bad bet and move on. The one bet away from salvaging losses mentality is a dangerous game. No different than trying to play the stock market after making a string of bad investments, or even a single bad investment.
Instead, let’s evaluate why the futures bet went awry so when you try futures bets again the following season, you can make a better choice.
The Curious Case of the Kansas City Chiefs Says All
At the time of this writing, the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs sit at 2-3 and are in last place in the AFC West. Now, since it’s October 2021, things are still early enough for the Chiefs to turn things around and run the table, finish 14-3, and earn the top seed in the playoffs.
But why are they struggling as I write today’s post?
We’re using the Chiefs because naturally, they were a popular futures bet. Anyone who bets on favorable outcomes would strongly consider betting on the Chiefs because of their recent track record. Three straight AFC Championship appearances, two Super Bowl appearances, one Super Bowl Championship.
So what gives? Why are the Chiefs struggling so much that they can neither score consistently nor stop anyone? If it wasn’t for a miraculous comeback against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, this team can easily be 1-4.
We need to go back to Super Bowl LV for the answer.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers laid a blueprint that showed others how to stop Patrick Mahomes. Pressure, pressure, and more pressure. The guy has yet to figure out how to overcome it, and it has led to Mahomes, while still producing gaudy numbers, to also produce senseless turnovers.
Add that to a defense that has stopped no one, and it should not surprise us that teams are either blowing out the Chiefs or they’re losing to teams they’d otherwise have beaten a year ago.
So, what’s the first thing you need to do when your futures bet gets busted?
Evaluate it. Find out why your team, so good just one year ago, can no longer beat anyone. Or at the moment is having a tough time doing so.
Ask Yourself if Futures Betting is For You
The funny thing about sports betting is that there are several different avenues you can undertake. And no, it’s not smart to become a jack of all trades in the game, even if you bet professionally. There is just too much to learn, and while there’s luck involved, there is also skill, logic, and probability.
So, find yourself a niche if this is your second or third year betting on the NFL, with futures only to receive nothing but loss and heartache in return. It doesn’t mean you’re not good at sports betting, but that there are probably other niches that you’re better suited for.
Fantasy football is the first one that comes to mind for many, but here’s the issue with fantasy football: It’s so saturated that you can put together a perfect lineup while Joe No Name puts together a list of no names on a daily fantasy sports app and wins the grand prize. Happens every week.
You can niche yourself in straight betting, parlays, props, over/unders, or a combo thereof. These days, you can even bet by the play if you study a team and their probabilities close enough.
However, if you insist that futures are for you, perhaps you can look at a sub-niche, or a niche within the niche, and focus on that.
Let’s return to the Kansas City Chiefs. Say you bet on them to win the AFC West, secure the top seed in the playoffs, make, and win the Super Bowl. That prospect, as of mid-October, looks bleaker by the day.
Starting the following season, you can sub-niche futures betting to something like division winners. Further sub-niche this to a specific conference, and perhaps just specific divisions or a specific division.
Or, take part in futures betting as you had during the current season, but niche it down to just one division period. This may increase your odds of winning in future seasons since you’re honing in only on select teams, and whether they are or aren’t worth specific bets.
Focus on Futures Betting in Other Sports
What’s the greatest thing about the Month of October?
It’s the fact that you can bet on multiple sports, not just the NFL. You got the MLB, NBA, and NHL. MLB playoffs, that is. As noted in the above sections, don’t place another futures bet on an NFL team, even if things look a little more narrow.
Instead, focus your betting on a clean slate in another sport. However, you still need to be cautious.
Each of the above sections has laid a blueprint as to what and how you can bet not just for NFL futures betting, but for any one of the four North American Sports Leagues.
So before you place a futures bet on which MLB playoff team will win the World Series, which NHL team will win the Stanley Cup, or which NBA team wins the Larry O’Brien Trophy, do your homework.
Say you placed a futures bet in favor of the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs and last season, you did the same on the 2020 San Francisco 49ers. Let’s not make the same mistake in the other North American Pro Sports Leagues.
So, evaluate the mistakes before you place your bet on anyone from the MLB, NBA, or NHL, and make an educated, informed choice on the matter.
If Nothing Else, Turn Your Focus Elsewhere
This section entwines well with the first section in today’s post. Shift your energies elsewhere for a while and perhaps give NFL futures betting, and all forms of futures sports betting a break.
Think of all the other things in the fall that you could be doing, such as hiking, biking, or starting that new side hustle. Take up a new class, learn a language, or embark on that hobby you haven’t yet gotten around to, sit back, and enjoy the NFL season without worrying about what your futures bet is doing.
Sometimes, taking a break from an activity if things aren’t going your way, not just NFL futures betting but any activity is the best thing you can do.
Plus, you can always go back the following season after taking such a long break, or as mentioned in the third section of today’s post, perhaps try another betting avenue or as mentioned in the fourth section, embark in futures betting in other sports in future seasons.
Overall, just because your futures bet is busted does not mean the world has ended. Instead, it’s just an opportunity to look elsewhere for a while, evaluate, and come back at a later time.
Our Final Thoughts
NFL futures betting is tough because there is no crystal ball here. The odds of winning are slim to none and your team’s odds may grow so slim throughout the season you may be tempted to bet on another team to salvage losses.
Don’t do it. Instead, evaluate why your chosen team is struggling the way they are (think 2020 49ers, 2021 Chiefs), and if anything else, bet in a different niche or even a different sport.
Or, shift your energies somewhere else. You don’t need to spend the sports season wagering on games or futures bets. There are plenty of cool things you can do if you take a mental break from NFL futures betting when things aren’t going well.