# A Simple Profitable MLB Betting Model

One of the rarest things in sports betting is finding a system or model that works. When sports gamblers develop a winning model, they don’t tend to share it because it can eliminate how profitable it is.

I’ve got some good news for you today. I’m going to share a profitable Major League Baseball betting system that you can use.

This model isn’t without some danger, but overall it’s a profitable system. All you have to do is have a bankroll and follow the simple steps.

Here’s a simple MLB betting model that’s profitable. Make sure you read the entire article so you have a full understanding of the system and the possible dangers before you start placing wagers.

## The Model Explained

This simple MLB betting model combines something like the Martingale system with statistical probabilities based on decades of MLB results. In this section you’re going to learn exactly how to use the system.

In the next section you’re going to learn why the system works, and in the following section you’re going to learn some of the possible dangers of using the system. Even if you don’t think the system is going to work after reading this section, spend a few extra minutes to read the next section showing why it works.

Here’s how this system works:

Identify the worst five teams in MLB. Never make a bet on these five teams. These teams can change during the course of the season.

Pick any team not on the list of the five worst teams playing at home. Place a moneyline wager on the home team. If you win the bet, you make a profit.

If you lose the bet, make a moneyline wager on the same team the next time they play a home game large enough to cover your previous loss and win a profit when you win. Continue doing this until you win a game and lock in a profit.

You can actually do this on several teams playing at home, if you have a big enough bankroll.

If this sounds a bit dangerous, it’s because there are a few dangers. But this system does work, and I’m getting ready to explain why.

## Why It Works

Every Major League Baseball team plays a 162 game schedule. The majority of teams win between 60 and 100 games. If a team wins one third of their games they win 54 games and lose 108. If a team wins two thirds of their games they win 108 games and lose 54.

Occasionally one or two teams lose more than 108 games or win more than 108 games. But there’s never a season when five teams lose more than 108 games. It’s extremely rare when more than one team loses more than 108 games.

It’s also a fact that MLB teams have a better record at home than on the road. While it’s theoretically possible for a baseball team to have a better record on the road than at home; the truth is it just doesn’t happen.

All of this information leads to why this system works. When you only bet on home teams and never bet on the worst five teams in the league, you’re working with a predictable series of information.

If you look at the 2019 MLB season and eliminate the five worst teams in the league, the worst home record was 35 wins and 46 losses. In fact, only seven teams in the top 25 had a losing record at home.

Looking at the 2018 MLB season, only six of the top 25 teams had a losing record at home. The worst home record was 31 wins and 50 losses, and the second worst of the 25 won 34 games.

For the five MLB seasons from 2015 to 2019, the average home won loss record for all 30 teams has been 42 – 38 or 43 – 37 every season.

MLB teams, and especially the ones in the top 25, almost never have a home losing streak. In fact, they almost never lose more than two games in a row at home. And the best teams rarely lose more than one game in a row at home.

This is why the system works. The problem with the Martingale system is mostly the huge bets you have to make when facing a series of losses. When you don’t have to worry about a long string of losses, the system works extremely well.

## The Dangers

The main danger any time you use the Martingale system is losing so many bets in a row that you run out of money or reach the upper betting limits where you place wagers.

As you learned preciously, it’s going to be rare for you to have to make more than a couple larger bets, because home teams don’t lose three or more games in a row often.

You do need to understand that this doesn’t mean that it’s impossible. It can happen, but it’s rare. You need to understand the difference between rare and impossible.

The main way to avoid this danger is to make sure you have a bankroll big enough to keep making bets until your team wins.

I recommend a minimum of 250 starting betting units, and 1,000 units are much better. If your profit goal on each string of games is \$100, a 250 betting unit bankroll is \$25,000. \$100,000 is much better.

With a larger bankroll, not only do you not have to worry about getting cleaned out on a losing streak, but you can also afford to have several betting strings going at the same time.

One of the biggest problems if you’re betting large enough amounts to make decent money using this system is getting bets down. It doesn’t matter if the system works if you can’t get big enough wagers down after a couple straight losses.

Because almost every bet you make using this system is on a favorite on the moneyline, you have to risk more than you can win. When you have to do this three or more times in a row, the amount you need to risk can get quite high.

As long as you have a big enough bankroll and can get the larger bets down, the system works. But you need to plan ahead and make sure you’re not going to run into trouble at the larger bet amounts.

One possible solution is to make bets on the same game at two or more sportsbooks. If you need to get \$15,000 down on a game, you might need to make three \$5,000 wagers at different sportsbooks. This probably won’t be a huge problem, but you can run into a situation where you move the line if you bet at the highest stakes.

## Model Variations

You can use many different variations with this system, though it works well as stated above. An MLB betting trick that I use sometimes is not making a wager on a home team until their next home game after they lose a home game.

In other words, I wait until a home team loses a game, and then make a wager on them in their next home game. This reduces the betting string, and improves my chance to win the next game.

Another variation is to eliminate more than the bottom five teams in the league. You can easily eliminate the bottom 10 or 15 teams in the league. I don’t recommend working with less than 20 teams though, so I don’t eliminate more than the bottom 10 teams.

I usually stick with the bottom five, because when you bet the moneyline you have to risk more when betting on the home team when they’re a top team in the league. With a big enough bankroll you can do this, but there’s value on the middle teams and the upper part of the bottom teams.

If you look at the 2019 season, using only the top 20 teams, only three of these teams had a losing home record.

## Conclusion

You’re not going to find a MLB betting system that’s profitable that’s as simple as this one. Now that you know why the system works, you can start using it during the next season.

The main reason why some people fail with this system is they don’t have a big enough bankroll. If you have a small bankroll, start making bets at an online sportsbook in small amounts. Use your profits to build your bankroll so you can make larger wagers.

Use this simple and profitable MLB betting model to make profits now and in future seasons.