In order to be a winning NCAA basketball gambler you need to learn how to evaluate games efficiently and find lines that offer value. It doesn’t matter where you find value, as long as you find it and are able to profit from it.
This requires the knowledge to find the right things to evaluate and the discipline to develop and follow a winning system. This is what you’re going to learn on this page.
Here’s a list of nine facts about betting on college basketball that you need to know. These facts are going to help you develop a winning system that you can use time after time to save time and do a better job picking winning bets.
1 – Talent Depth
Every NCAA basketball team has some players that are more talented than others. But one of the keys to making winning college basketball wagers is determining the level of talent on each team, and the depth of talent on each team.
If two teams have roughly the same level of talent in their top three players, you need to know which team has more talent in their fourth through eighth players. The truth is that the top teams usually have eight guys that could start on 90% of the teams in the country.
You have to evaluate the talent on each team and use the information when comparing two teams in an upcoming game.
Talent isn’t the only factor in who wins a game, but it’s a big factor. Superior talent usually wins in the long run.
2 – Talent Doesn’t Always Win
You just learned a little bit about this in the last section, but talent alone doesn’t always win. If everything else is equal, the team with the most talent is going to come out on the winning side most of the time. But everything else is never equal.
You need to evaluate how well the talent is used on each team, and how well the talent uses the system the team runs. Coaching also comes into play, which is covered in a later section.
It’s also important to learn how teams play at home and on the road, and if possible, find out what’s going on off the court that can influence what happens on the court. Remember that college basketball players are still kids for the most part, and lots of things can mess with their production.
3 – Three Types of Conferences
Most college basketball gamblers look at the NCAA and think that every conference is basically the same. Of course, most college bettors lose, so you don’t want to do what they’re doing.
College basketball basically has three types of conferences. The top few conferences like the ACC and SEC that everyone watches is one type. The bottom few conferences that no one watches is another type. The final type is what I call middle conferences, where all of the other conferences belong.
The reason why this is important is because you can use it to make money. The top conferences have tighter lines because they have more betting action. This means that there’s an opportunity to find value in the middle conferences and bottom conferences.
Instead of focusing on the big conferences where everyone else is looking, become a master on the smaller conferences. This makes your job easier and gives you more opportunities to make a profit.
4 – Height Advantage
In the NBA height isn’t as important as it is at every lower level of basketball. The main reason for this is because most of the players in the NBA are superior athletes, and they can overcome a height disadvantage with their skills.
In college basketball a height advantage still makes a big difference. While there are many good athletes in NCAA basketball, the truth is that very few of them are good enough to play in the NBA. And many of the best athletes are still learning how to best use their skills, so they don’t overcome a height disadvantage as easily.
It’s not the only thing you need to use when evaluating college basketball teams and games, but you do need to use height as a factor when you’re handicapping games. Teams with a large height advantage usually dominate in the paint and control the boards on both ends of the court.
5 – Turnover Ratio Rules
What’s the most important play in a basketball game? Most people think that scoring is the most important thing. But smart college basketball bettors know that a turnover is the most important play.
Any play that denies one team a scoring chance and creates a new scoring chance has the opportunity to swing the game by as many as six points. But even if it only swings the game by two points, it’s still important.
You need to know which teams have the best turnover ratio and which teams have the worst turnover ratio. Teams that protect the ball and force turnovers always have a better chance to win.
6 – Rebounding Differential
Turnovers are closely followed by rebounding when it comes to important plays in a basketball game. And the reason is the same. Every time a team gets a rebound they create a scoring chance and deny their opponent one.
Offensive rebounds are particularly important in this area, because it gives the offense a second chance to score. But defensive rebounds are also important because they stop an offensive possession and start a possession for the defense.
You need to look at how many rebounds each team gets on each end of the floor, and how many they give up. This gives you four pieces of information in every game you can use. Which teams have the highest differential on the offensive and defensive end of the court?
7 – Evaluating Talent Gaps
I know that the first two sections were about talent, but talent has so much to do with winning bets that you have to look at it every way you can. One important thing to do is learn how to evaluate the gap in talent between teams.
You can use recruiting rankings to help with this, but when you focus n the teams in smaller conferences like I recommend, you have to rely on what you see in games as much or more as you rely on talent rankings.
It’s clear that same teams have more talent, but knowing this isn’t enough. You have to learn how to evaluate talent gaps for teams that appear to be close in talent and performance. This isn’t easy, but the more you work on it the better you’re going to be. And this is one place where you can use your skills to find value that others miss.
8 – Fast and Slow Considerations
It’s not at the top of the list for most college basketball bettors, but how fast or slow each team tries to play has a big impact on evaluating games.
Which team is going to control the tempo? If you can figure this out it’s going to help you make totals wagers and point spread wagers, because the team forced to play outside their comfort zone is going to suffer.
9 – Coaching Has a Big Influence
In many sports coaching only has a small influence on the games. But in NCAA basketball, coaching has a larger influence. This starts with recruiting, but it also includes preparing players to play at their peak, and in game strategy and decision making.
The best coaches win everywhere they go, and everyone else is simply trying to stay employed. Make fore you factor in the influence of each coach in the conferences you’re working.
It’s not as hard as many gamblers think to make money betting on college basketball. They just don’t know how to do it yet. The best plan to be a winning NCAA basketball bettor is to find out what the winners are doing, and do the same thing.
That’s where the nine college basketball facts listed on this page come into play. Winning college basketball gamblers know these facts and use them when they evaluate game. Use these facts to develop your own winning college basketball betting system.