If you bet on sports the odds are that you bet on NFL games. It’s by far the most popular betting league in the United States, and it’s what brings most gamblers into sports betting.
Because the NFL is popular with gamblers, the sportsbooks spend a great deal of time setting profitable lines. This means that the NFL is one of the hardest sports to bet on profitably.
While it’s never going to be easy to be a winning NFL gambler; if you know how to use the same tricks that the professionals use it’s going to improve your results.
Here’s a list of seven tricks that most professional NFL gamblers use that you can start using today.
1 – Turnovers and Forcing Turnovers
The most important plays in the NFL aren’t touchdowns. Fans watch games and see scoring plays and assume that scoring is the most important thing that can happen because the team that scores the most points wins the game.
Every time there’s a turnover it influences the outcome of the game. A team that doesn’t turn the ball over and forces turnovers has a better chance to win.
On the other hand, a team that turns the ball over and doesn’t force turnovers doesn’t have a good chance two win.
This might seem too simple to be valuable, but most football gamblers ignore these simple facts. If you want to evaluate games in the NFL like the pros, start tracking turnovers more closely and using them every time you look at a game and betting line.
2 – 3 and Outs
Closely following turnovers in importance are the teams with defenses that have a high percentage of three and out series. A defense that forces the other team to punt after three downs helps their team win in a few different ways.
The first thing it does is keep the defense fresher late in the game when they might need to make a big stop. In turn, this helps wear down the opposing defense because they have to get back on the field quickly and battle the offense again.
The other important thing this type of defense does is help their team win the field position battle. As you’re going to learn in the next section, the team that wins the field position battle tends to win more games than they lose.
3 – Field Position on Both Sides
Do you know which NFL offense has the best average starting field position? Do you know which NFL defense has the worst average starting field position?
You need to know where every team in the NFL ranks for starting field position on offense and defense.
These rankings are so important that it’s almost impossible to win on a consistent basis if you don’t know them and use them. The team that wins the field position battle wins a very high percentage of games.
Many different things go into field position, including the strength of the offense, the strength of the defense, the kicking game, and coverage teams. But all of these things can be evaluated together using average starting field position.
You must use starting field position for every team on both sides of the ball every single time you evaluate a game and betting lines. Until you start using this, the odds of long term profits are probably close to zero.
4 – Quarterback Evaluation Tricks
Every NFL game you evaluate has to start with the quarterbacks on each team. This position is so important that you’re not going to win consistently until you learn how to evaluate quarterback play effectively.
You start with the main stats, but you have to go much deeper than this to win games. You need to break down every quarterback in as many ways as possible. This includes performance in each quarter, in each half, when under pressure, on each down, at different down and distances, when trailing, when leading, and anything else you can think of.
You also need to know if the quarterback is a threat to run, and how good they are when they do run.
No stone can be left unturned when it comes to evaluating quarterback play. If you’re not an expert on quarterback play you’re simply not going to win many NFL bets.
5 – Every Other Position Is Equal
If you didn’t know that quarterbacks are the most important position when evaluating NFL games before reading this page, you do now. But there’s something just as important that you need to know about the other positions on the team.
Every other starting position is equally important in the NFL. The starting left guard and number one wide receiver are equally important. And the starting left defensive end and the strong safety are equally important.
It’s easy to value skill position players more than lineman, but the truth is that NFL coaches know where the weakest players are and they take advantage of them. You can’t afford to value any position over another in the NFL other than the quarterback.
It’s challenging to evaluate line play because there aren’t easy stats you can use like for skill position players. But this isn’t an excuse you can use.
If you want to make more profit gambling on the NFL you have to start evaluating every position on the field equally.
6 – Properly Valuing NFL Coaches and Their Influence on Games
How much influence does coaching have on results in the NFL? You can argue that coaching has little to do with results because the players are the ones that perform on the field. Or you can argue that coaches have a big influence because they prepare the players, game plan each game, and call plays during the game.
The truth is that both sides of the argument need to be considered. But another truth is that some coaches, both head coaches and assistant coaches like coordinators, are better than others. They’re better at preparing their players and getting the most out of their players on game day.
Winning NFL gamblers know which coaches are the best and which ones don’t have as much influence on games. You need to start building a ranking system for coaches and coaching staffs you use when evaluating games.
This helps you evaluate games in the current season and also helps you predict how coaching changes influence games in upcoming seasons.
7 – Beware Totals Lines
Let me start this section by stating that some professional NFL gamblers use totals for profit. But you need to be extremely careful of betting on totals until you build a long history of profitable point spread and moneyline wagers.
Totals are also called over under wagers, and you bet that the total number of points scored in the game is going to be over or under the total listed by the sportsbook. This seems simple, but totals are hard to predict.
Here’s what happens with most NFL gamblers.
They see a game on the schedule between two teams that score in the bottom half of the league. The gambler makes a false assumption that the under has to be a value bet.
The same thing happens when two teams in the top half of the league in scoring face off. The average NFL gambler assumes that the over must have value.
As it turns out, both of these assumption is wrong. The truth is that with the information I just gave you it’s impossible to assign value to one side or the other of the total. But this is where most gamblers stop.
Sportsbooks know that most gamblers think this way, so when they set their totals lines they take advantage of the average gambler. This means that totals tend to offer no value or have value on the opposite side of what makes sense to most NFL gamblers.
If you’re gambling on National Football League games, you have to start using the tricks that the professional bettors use listed on this page. If you’re not using these tricks the odds of you making a long term profit are almost nonexistent.
Use the tricks listed on this page every time you evaluate an NFL game. Not only is using these tricks going to help you avoid the same mistakes that most NFL bettors make; they’re also going to help you learn how to gamble with a long term profit.