Do you ever wonder if winning NBA gamblers have some secrets and tricks that they use to win that you don’t know about? The truth is that they do have tricks and secrets that they use to win, and they aren’t likely to share them with you.
I’ve learned several tricks to winning NBA bets over the years, and have decided to share some of them with you here. These are all tricks that you can learn through trial and error over years of gambling, but you can take a shortcut.
Here’s a list of seven tricks the professional NBA gamblers use to make more profitable wagers.
1 – Betting on Rest
One of the easiest ways to find winning NBA betting opportunities is to track past results of games compared to betting lines. When you do this you can quickly find patterns that smart NBA gamblers use all of the time to make profits.
Tracking how much rest teams and star players have before games in the NBA is one of the first things you need to do. Every team in the NBA plays the same number of games, and the same number of home and road games. But each team and player has a different amount of rest for games at different points on the schedule.
Also remember to track when the best players get a game off. A team might not be well rested, but if they gave a star a game off he can be well rested. And a rested star can carry a team that’s not rested in some situations.
Use rest in every game evaluation you do in the NBA.
2 – Home Road Splits
Here’s what most NBA gamblers do. They look at the win loss record for teams, and maybe a few stats for teams and players, and then make a bet based on this limited knowledge and the betting line. This is why most NBA gamblers lose.
Smart NBA gamblers know that overall statistics are worthless. Every game has a home team and a road team. The only statistics that matter are the ones the home team has at home and the road team has on the road.
The best NBA teams can perform close to the same level at home and on the road, but every team suffers some on the road. And NBA teams play better at home. The key is to learn how to evaluate how much better home teams plays at home and how much worse road teams plays on the road.
Ignore all of the overall stats in the NBA and only use the home and road splits when you handicap games.
3 – Turnover Differential Tricks
Do you want to know one statistic that can instantly change your results when you’re betting on NBA games? It’s really simple, but almost no NBA gamblers use it.
This simple statistic is turnover differential.
Immediately look up the turnover differential for every team in the NBA. And start tracking this stat every day.
Here’s what you’re going to see. The best teams have a good turnover differential and the worst teams have a bad turnover differential.
The turnover differential is simply the difference between the turnovers a team makes and the ones they get. It can be positive when a team gets more turnovers than they give, and it can be negative when a team turns the ball over more than they force turnovers.
Don’t make the mistake of ignoring turnover differential or underestimating how important that it is. This one statistic can immediately improve your NBA gambling results when you use it as a big part of your handicapping system.
4 – Taking the Under
Smart NBA gamblers know that they can often find value by taking the under when two teams are playing that score a lot of points. This is a trick that takes advantage of the way that sportsbooks set lines.
Sportsbook set their lines based on making money. The mistake many sports bettors make is assuming that the lines are a prediction of what the sportsbook thinks is going to happen. The sportsbooks don’t care what happens in a game. The only thing they care about is how much money they can make on a game and line.
NBA sportsbooks know that most gamblers are going to take the over in games like this. So they adjust their total up to take advantage of this profit opportunity. This is why winning NBA gamblers look at the under in these games to see if there’s value on it.
Every high scoring game doesn’t offer value on the under. But many of them do. The one thing that smart NBA gamblers know is that there’s not going to be any value on the over in these games.
5 – Taking the Over
Now that you know when to look for value on the under, you should be able to figure out when the best time is to look for value on the over.
Betting on the under in these games is a losing strategy. This is for the same reason I explained in the last section.
Look at the over in these NBA games to see if you can find value. The over won’t always offer value, but many times it does.
If you do a good job evaluating games like these and the ones in the last section, you have a good chance to turn long term profits betting only on these types of games. You can’t blindly bet on the opposite side of the public in these games, but with some smart handicapping you can find the most profitable opportunities and take advantage of them on a regular basis.
6 – Betting Against New Coaches From the NCAA
When a losing NBA team replaces their head coach they have a few different options. They can hire a coach with NBA head coaching experience, and hope they can improve the team.
They can hire an NBA assistant coach to see how they perform as the head coach. Or they can hire a winning coach from the NCAA ranks.
Many winning college basketball coaches have made the jump to the NBA. But not very many of them have turned into great NBA coaches.
An NCAA coach who takes an NBA job is fighting two important things. The first thing is that they’re almost always taking over a losing team. The second thing is they have to learn how to deal with players at the professional level. Professional players are different when it comes to coaching than college players.
One of the big differences is that in college the coach is always making more than the players. But in the pros the players are almost all making more than the coach.
All of this leads to an important NBA trick you can use. It can be quite profitable to bet against teams in the NBA with new coaches from college basketball.
7 – Home Moneyline Underdogs
You have to be careful with this one, but if you learn how to evaluate games and lines correctly you can make good profits betting on the moneyline on home NBA teams that are underdogs.
When you bet on an NBA underdog using the moneyline you get a higher price than you pay when you win the game. This means you don’t have to win half of your bets to make a profit.
The key is to identify the home underdogs that have a better chance to win than the price you’re getting on the moneyline. You know that home teams perform better than road teams, but there’s a reason why a home team is an underdog.
With enough work on your evaluation system you can learn to identify profitable betting opportunities on home underdogs in the NBA, just like the professional gamblers.
Now that you know some of the tricks and secrets that winning NBA gamblers use for profit, you can start using them too. But don’t stop with the tricks listed on this page. Use this list to start your own bigger list of tricks and secrets.
Learn from every game you evaluate and bet on to develop your own set of profitable NBA gambling tricks. Once you develop a big enough list of secrets, you can find profitable NBA gambling opportunities every day of the season.