Are you struggling to make money as a baseball gambler? If you are, it’s either because you’re not putting in enough work when you evaluate games or you don’t know how to use some of the tricks that winning gamblers use.
Here’s a list of seven tricks that professional MLB gamblers use to help you win more of your wagers.
1 – Ignore Overall Statistics
One of the big mistakes that I see most baseball gamblers make is using overall stats to evaluate games. What I mean is they look at the season statistics for the pitchers and hitters instead of looking at the splits.
Smart baseball gamblers look at every relevant split for each game they evaluate. This includes:
- Left and right splits for hitters
- Left and right splits for pitchers
- Home and road splits for hitters
- Home and road splits for pitchers
You also can look at the splits for night and day games, defensive splits, and how teams and players perform based on the month.
You need to look for every advantage you can find, and the only thing that you shouldn’t look at is the overall stat line for any player or team.
Here’s an example of why this is so dangerous:
A pitcher has pitched 200 innings and has an ERA of 3.50. This is a solid starting pitcher based on his overall stats. But when you take a deeper look, you can see that depending on where he’s pitching, you’re either overestimating or underestimating his performance.
At home he’s pitched 100 innings and has an ERA of 2.50. On the road he’s also pitched 100 innings, but his ERA is 4.50.
As you can see, at home he’s one of the best pitchers in the league, but when he pitches on the road, he’s not very good.
2 – Never Underestimate the Influence of Pitching
Losing MLB gamblers focus too much on hitting and offense and not enough on pitching and defense. Fans enjoy hitting, and winning gamblers focus more on pitching. This should tell you that you’re probably not considering pitching enough when you evaluate MLB games.
It might make sense to balance pitching and hitting when evaluating games at 50% each. And this is a good goal to shoot for, especially if you’re not making profit on your MLB gambling now.
But I recommend going a step beyond this and weighing pitching and defense closer to 60%, and hitting and offense at 40%.
Even if this doesn’t make sense, give it a try and see how it changes your results. You can’t ignore hitting, but pitching controls every MLB game. Dominant pitching overcomes hitting every time. The problem is that there’s not much dominant pitching in the game.
3 – The Magic of 54 to 108
Amateur baseball gamblers tend to look at the best teams in the league and think that they almost never lose. And they look at the worst teams in MLB and think that they almost never win. But the truth is that every team loses and every team wins.
In fact, almost every team in any given year, series of years, or decades, wins somewhere between 54 and 108 games per season. They also lose somewhere between 54 and 108 games.
Of course, some years there’s a team, or possibly two teams, that win a few more than 108, or win a few less than 54 games. But overall, teams land somewhere in this range most of the time.
It’s important to understand this when you’re handicapping MLB games. This is because no matter how good a team looks, they simply aren’t going to win more than somewhere around two thirds of the time. And no matter how bad a team looks, the odds say that they’re going to win around one third of the time.
If you look at several seasons’ worth of win and loss records, you can see that it’s easier to lose enough to get outside of this range than it is to win more than 108 games.
Through the 2019 MLB season, there have been only eight teams win more than 108 games in a season. Here’s the short list:
- 1906 Chicago Cubs – 116
- 1909 Pittsburgh Pirates – 110
- 1927 NY Yankees – 110
- 1954 Cleveland Indians – 111
- 1961 NY Yankees – 109
- 1969 Baltimore Orioles – 109
- 1998 NY Yankees – 114
- 2001 Seattle Mariners – 116
As you can see, in the 50 seasons from 1970 to 2019, there are only two teams that have won more than 108 games.
Here’s how this information helps professional Major League Baseball gamblers. They know that even the best teams are going to lose 54 or more games. They just need to determine the 60 or so games on the schedule that the best teams are most likely to lose.
On the other side of this, they need to determine the 60 or so games that the worst teams are most likely to win.
You can have a season full of profits based on just these two things.
4 – Take the Runs
You can bet on Major League Baseball games using the moneyline, the totals, or the run line. When you bet on the run line, one team gets 1.5 runs and the other gives 1.5 runs.
When you bet on MLB using run lines, you need to look at the teams getting 1.5 runs for most of your wagers. It’s challenging for any MLB team to win by two or more runs, so it’s dangerous to bet on teams giving 1.5 runs.
Of course, you still have to find value before making a wager getting runs, and many games don’t have value so you shouldn’t bet on them. When you get runs, you have to pay a higher price, so you must always consider this when looking for value. But winning MLB gamblers find the teams that are getting runs that have a price that’s low enough to offer value.
5 – Home Team Moneyline Profits
The moneyline offered on MLB games by sportsbooks is just like the ones offered for other sports. You pay a higher price for favorites and get a better price when you bet on underdogs. And just like in other sports, home teams are favored more often than road teams.
You can use this information to build a profitable betting strategy by betting on home teams on the moneyline more often than betting on road teams. You still have to evaluate each game for value, but games with value almost always have it on the home team.
When the home team loses the first game of the series, they’re much more likely to win the second game. The same is true when the home team loses the first two games of a series.
6 – Errors, Giving Away Outs, and Other Mistakes
In order to win a baseball game, a team has to get 27 outs. While an extra out or missing the opportunity to get an out might not seem too important over the course of a game, the truth is that every single out and missed opportunity to get an out is a big deal.
When a team commits an error they miss an opportunity to make an out. When a team on offense runs into an out they could’ve avoided or makes another mistake that leads to an out, they give the defense one of the 27 outs they need.
You need to learn which teams are the best at getting extra outs and avoiding giving up extra outs. And you need to learn which teams are the worst in these areas. This is going to help you evaluate games better and make more money.
7 – On Base Percentage
What’s the most popular statistic in MLB? It’s probably home runs. Baseball fans tend to enjoy high scoring teams and games, and home runs and extra base hits lead to more runs. For this reason, fans tend to like players and teams with a high slugging percentage.
While there’s nothing wrong with this, the problem is that most fans don’t consider on base percentage. OBP is a simple statistic that shows how often a player or team reaches base. And the highest scoring teams have the highest OBP.
You need to consider slugging percentage when you evaluate games, but you also need to look at OBP for every game and player you evaluate. In many ways it’s at least as important as slugging, and in some situations it might even be more important.
Use these seven tricks to become a profitable Major League Baseball gambler. Avoid using overall statistics and use the appropriate splits every time you evaluate a game. Avoid overestimating the importance of hitting, and avoid making losing bets.
Understand the importance of 54 wins and 108 wins, and learn the best strategies for the available betting lines. When you use these tricks you can join the ranks of profitable professional baseball gamblers.