If you want a challenge, try to figure out a way to win your first NFL wager. It’s the most competitive betting field for first time gamblers, but this doesn’t mean you should avoid the challenge.
The average NFL gambler wins 50% of their picks against the spread, but you can improve your chance to win your first wager using a different line. Combine this with a few more steps and you have a great chance to win your first NFL wager.
Here are five steps to help you win your first NFL wager.
Pick a Home Team
Like every other team sport in the world, NFL teams have better records at home than on the road. This isn’t exactly big news, but when you’re doing everything you can to win your first NFL wager, it’s an important point.
Now look at how each home NFL team plays at home. At the same time, look at the road record and performance for each road team. Look beyond the records and look at how many yards and points each team scores at home and on the road and how many yards and points they give up at home and on the road.
At this point at least a couple games should jump out at you. A really good home team facing a poor team that plays poorly on the road gives you a good chance to make a winning wager on the home team.
You probably know that in games like these that the home team is going to have to give up quite a few points to the road team, but don’t worry about that right now. You’re not going to have to worry about the point spread for your first wager.
Pick a Quality Quarterback
The simple fact is that NFL teams rely on the quarterback position to win games. Teams with good quarterbacks win more than teams with weak quarterbacks.
Of course, quarterbacks have good games and bad games. Sometimes a good quarterback plays poorly and sometimes a weak quarterback plays better than expected. But overall, the teams with the best quarterbacks tend to perform better every week.
You also need to evaluate each quarterback in a game based on how they perform at home and on the road. It really doesn’t matter how well a quarterback plays overall because he has stats for home games and road games.
This means that you only need to look at home stats for the home team quarterback and road stats for the quarterback for the visiting team.
Dig deep into each quarterback in the game. This means looking beyond the main statistics. Look at how each quarterback performs late in games and on third down conversions. And never forget that a quarterback who protects the ball is almost always more valuable than one who turns the ball over. Fumbles and interceptions cripple a team.
Use the Moneyline
After the first two steps you should have a good idea of which team or teams offer the best opportunity to win. A home team with a god quarterback facing a road team with a poor quarterback is as close to a lock as you’re ever going to find.
I mentioned earlier that the point spread on a game like this is going to be high. If you bet on a good home team like this using the point spread you might have to give 10 to 14 points. This makes it much more difficult to win your first wager.
But you don’t have to use the point spread.
I looked at a recent week’s NFL schedule and there are three games that have a home team with a quarterback advantage. The three moneylines for these games are at – 400, – 360, and – 340.
When the moneyline has a negative number, this is how much you risk to win $100, but you don’t have to wager that much. You can wager a smaller amount to win the same ration.
I like the matchup for the game with a – 360 better than the one at – 400, so I’m wagering on the home team at – 360.
Evaluate the Cornerbacks
You always need to evaluate the quarterbacks, but you also need to evaluate the other positions on each team before making a final wagering decision. The next most important position on the field for wagering purposes is cornerback.
The passing attack is the most important part of the offense in the NFL, and the most important position on the defense against the passing attack is cornerback. The pass rush is also important, but if you have to pick one area on defense to focus on it’s the cornerback position.
When a good quarterback faces a team with weak cornerbacks there’s not much the team can do to slow down the passing attack. The fact is that the great quarterbacks are going to find open receivers, but good cornerbacks can limit the damage.
You’re not looking for close match ups when you’re looking for your first NFL win as a sports betting beginner. You’re looking for a clear path to victory. Find a home team with a good or great quarterback facing a weak team with weak cornerbacks.
Is There a Streak?
Using the first four steps you already have a strong chance of winning your first NFL wager. But there’s one more thing you can look for to help improve your chances a little more. You don’t have to have this step line up before you make your first wager, but it’s another positive indicator if it does line up.
Let’s say you’re looking at the three games I mentioned above and in one of the games the home team has won three games in a row and the road team has lost two games in a row. If you didn’t know anything else about the teams, which team do you think has the best chance to win? Is the answer the team on the winning streak or the team on the losing streak?
Of course the answer is the team on the winning streak.
Here’s a word of warning about streaks in the NFL. You can use them to help you make decisions, but never use them alone. A streak, or a streak on each side of a game, isn’t a strong enough indicator to place a wager.
And a streak isn’t enough alone to make a wager bad. For example, a home team with a better quarterback that lost the last two weeks facing a weak team with a weak quarterback on the road that won the last two weeks is still probably a good wagering opportunity on the home team.
You have to look at as many things as possible when you’re looking to increase your odds of winning a bet. These include winning and losing streaks; but never just look at winning and losing streaks without looking at many other things.
It’s not easy winning NFL wagers. It’s the most popular sports to bet on in the United States, the sportsbooks take more action on the NFL than other sports, and the lines are always tight. But this doesn’t mean you can’t win your first NFL wager.
Simply use the five steps outlined above and you’re going to have a better than 50% chance of winning your first wager. And if you don’t win your first one the odds are even better that you’re going to win your second wager. Just keep using the steps on this page and your first win is just right around the corner.