5 Steps to Winning Your First NCAA Basketball Wager

NCAA Kentucky and Texas Tech Basketball Players

It’s not easy to be a profitable NCAA basketball gambler, but it’s fairly easy to put yourself in good position to win your first college basketball wager. In fact, if you follow the steps outlined on this page you have a better than 90% chance of winning your first wager.

This might sound too good to be true, but once you learn these simple steps you’re going to see why it’s true.

Here are five simple steps to help you win your first NCAA basketball wager. You can also use these simple steps to help you keep winning in the future.

1 – Betting on the Big Home Favorites

It’s actually pretty easy to win your first NCAA basketball wager. You still need to use the information in the other steps on this page, but everything starts with what you’re getting ready to learn in this section.

The easiest way to win your first NCAA basketball wager is to look at the schedule and find the teams playing at home that are the biggest favorites. Pick one of these home favorites and place a moneyline wager on them.

NCAA Basketball Player Taking a Jumpshot

A big favorite usually wins. In fact, depending on how big of a favorite they are, they usually win 90% or more of the time. And when you use the moneyline all you’re betting on is if the team wins. It doesn’t matter by how much they win.

For your first college basketball wager, don’t risk too much. Place a $10 or $20 wager on the moneyline for a big home favorite, even if it’s just to win $5 or so. Keep looking for these opportunities while you build your bankroll and learn how to evaluate games better.

Use the rest of the steps on this page to refine your pick to make sure you have the best chance of winning your first NCAA basketball wager.

2 – Picking the Right NCAA Conference

One of the important facts about College basketball is that teams belong to one of many different conferences. Some conferences are stronger from top to bottom than others, and some of them are tighter from top to bottom. And the talent level between the top conferences in the NCAA and the bottom conferences is huge.

The best teams in a small conference usually couldn’t compete with the weakest teams in the large conferences. This is important information to understand when you’re looking for your first college basketball gambling win.

If you’re placing a wager on a game with a big conference team playing against a smaller conference team, the odds almost always favor the big conference team. This is simply because the large conference teams tend to get better recruits and they play against a better brand of opponent most of the time.

This doesn’t mean that a smaller conference team can’t beat a big conference team. This happens every season. The trick is to learn which of these games can be a trap and avoid betting on these games.

When I’m looking for a game like you’re looking for to win your first NCAA basketball wager, I’m looking for one of two things. I’m either looking for a top big conference team playing against a weak in conference opponent or weak out of conference opponent, or I’m looking for a smaller conference team that’s dominating their conference playing against a weak team in their conference.

These are the things you need to look for when you’re trying to win your first college basketball wager.

3 – Look at the Rebound Stats

Every basketball fan seems to focus on scoring. This alone isn’t why most college basketball gamblers lose, but it does hurt these gamblers when they forget to look at other important statistics. One of the other important stats is rebounds.

When a team controls the rebounding in a game they almost always win the game. This means that if you can find a big home favorite that wins the rebounding battle, it’s even safer to place a wager on them using the moneyline.

But you also have to make sure that you look at rebounds in many different ways. Most people who consider rebounding just look at the average rebounds for each team.

NCAA March Madness Wilson Basketball

You need to look at the home and road splits for everything including rebounds. You also need to look at the rebounding differential for each team in each game and on the season. Does one team win the rebounding battle every game they play, or just most of the time?

What happens to the rebounding numbers for each team when their best rebounder is out of the game?

Don’t make the mistakes that many basketball gamblers make and assume that a team that shoots better than most of their opponents doesn’t also need to control the boards. The best teams shoot better, play better defense, and win the rebounding war.

The main thing you need to understand in this section is that you must consider rebounding in as many ways as possible when you’re looking for a team to place a wager on for your first NCAA basketball win.

4 – Turnover Ratio Is Important

If there’s a secret that most college basketball gamblers are missing, it involves turnovers. Very few NCAA basketball gamblers ever consider turnovers when they’re evaluating games. But turnover ratio is one of the most important things you need to track.

Turnover ratio is a simple statistic created by comparing how many turnovers a team has and how many turnovers they create. A team that has turned the ball over 112 times and has created 122 turnovers has a turnover ratio of + 10.

A team that has turned the ball over 136 times and has created 123 turnovers has a turnover ratio of – 13. You should track turnover ratio for each team overall for the season, for each game, and when they play at home and on the road.

In the first section you learned how to take the easy path to find your first NCAA basketball gambling win. But you need to look at the turnover ratio for each team in the game before you place the wager.

Some teams are talented enough to overcome a negative turnover ratio, but these teams are always in danger of having it bite them and make them lose a game they should have won.

If the home team you’re considering placing a wager on doesn’t have a better turnover ratio than their opponent, you should find another game to place your first wager on.

5 – Do the Best College Basketball Players Always Win?

Professional sports leagues use a draft process with some sort of free agency to build their teams. Some leagues have a salary cap, and some have something that works like a cap that is called something else.

In college sports teams are built a different way. High school athletes that are good enough to play college sports, especially the best players, have a choice of where they go to play.

Many things go into these decisions, but ultimately the coaches of college teams have to convince players to play for them. You can find plenty of stories about corruption and payments, but these stories don’t really matter when you’re trying to win your first NCAA basketball wager.

NCAA Basketball Hoyas Player

What does matter is the quality of players college basketball teams are able to recruit. The best teams in the nation tend to attract the best recruits. This means that the best teams tend to have the best players.

This might lead you to simply track the college basketball teams who do the best job recruiting and place a wager on these teams. You should be tracking how all of the teams in NCAA basketball recruit, but it’s not the only thing that dictates which team wins a particular game.

It’s important to evaluate the talent for both teams when you’re handicapping a basketball game. But you also have to consider how much experience all of the players have, how well they’re currently playing, and how much production each coaching staff gets out of their players.

In other words, the best players or talent don’t always win. It’s a good indication and place to start, but you have to look deeper than talent if you want to be successful betting on NCAA basketball games.


Now you know how easy it is to win your first NCAA basketball wager. If you follow these five steps, you have a 90% or better chance to win your first wager.

The key is finding the easiest path and following it. Find a home team that’s a bug favorite who also wins the turnover battle and rebounding battle and make a small wager on the moneyline.

Winning in the long run takes a little more than this, but you can use this information to form a solid foundation for your continued success.