It’s not the end of the world if you don’t win your first Major League Baseball wager, but it’s always good to get started with a win. And it’s not too hard to use a few simple strategies to improve your odds of winning your first MLB bet.
To become a long term winning MLB gambler you need to use every strategy that you can, and the five steps on this page are going to help you win your first wager and you can continue using them in the future.
Here are five simple steps to win your first MLB wager.
1 – Home Teams
The number one thing you can do to help you win your first MLB wager is bet on a team playing at home. Look at the home and road records for each team in the league and you can quickly see that teams play better at home than they do on the road.
But right now you’re just trying to win your first MLB wager, so look at all of the top 15 teams in the Majors to see which teams are playing at home. This is your first step.
Now that you’ve identified these teams, look at each of their home records. Now look at the road records for each team playing against these home teams.
Now you have a good idea of which home teams with a winning record are playing the worst teams on the road. This gives you a good place to start. When you use the other steps on this page, one or two wagering opportunities are going to stand out as better than the rest for your first bet.
2 – Starting Pitchers
The next step is to look at the pitching staff for each team in the games you identified using the first step. Look at how each starting pitcher has performed overall for the current season as well as how they pitched in the previous two or three starts.
When you look at the previous starts, look at how many pitches they threw, how many innings they pitched, and how well they were able to perform in the late innings compared to the early innings.
Winning home teams with a strong starting pitcher facing weak teams with a weak starting pitcher are prime opportunities for a winning wager.
You want to stack as many things in your favor as possible to win your first MLB wager. When you find a strong home team with a good pitcher facing a losing road team with a weak pitcher, you’re stacking almost everything you can in your favor.
Of course, when things line up like this the sportsbooks know it too. When the sportsbooks see games like this, they set their lines accordingly. But at this point you’re just trying to find a good betting opportunity, so don’t worry about the lines. You’re going to learn more about the best lines to place a wager on in the next section.
At this point you should have at least one good wagering opportunity. Hopefully you have two or three good possibilities. Use the rest of the steps listed below to narrow your choice down to a single great opportunity.
3 – Moneyline or Run Line
The sportsbooks set many different types of lines for MLB games, but when you’re focused on winning your first wager you only need to consider two lines. You need to look at the moneyline and the run line.
The moneyline is simple, and it’s the line that you’re most likely to use to win your first wager. When you place a moneyline wager all you have to have happen to win your bet is for the team you placed a wager on to win.
Using the two examples above, you need to wager $210 to win $100, or $250 to win $100. Depending on how much money you have to place wagers, this might seem like a lot to risk. But you don’t have to bet that much.
You can wager $21 to win $10 or $25 to win $10. Basically you can wager any amount you feel comfortable with, and the sportsbook calculates how much you can win based on their lines.
The run line usually has one team getting 1 ½ runs and the other team giving 1 ½ runs. The run line also has a positive or negative number. For your first wager, stick with the moneyline. The only reason I introduced run lines is because eventually you’re going to use them to find value MLB wagering opportunities.
4 – Use the Splits
One of the worst MLB betting mistakes is ignoring split statistics. Each team and player performs different at home and away and against right hand and left hand competition. The overall stats are what most people look at, but they’re not of much value when you’re trying to win a wager.
In the first section you looked for games with strong home teams facing weak road teams. In the second section you started looking at the starting pitchers for each of these games. Now take this a step more and look at the splits for each team and each starting pitcher.
Look at the position players that are most likely to start and see what their splits look like for the pitcher they’re going to face.
If the home starting pitcher is right handed, look at how each of the position players on the opposing team hits against right handed pitching. Look at basting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.
You can look at more stats than these, and even use newer stats like wins above replacement, but using the three base statistics is the best place to start.
At this point you should have a clear picture of the best game and team to place a wager on. Place a small moneyline wager on the home team with the best chance to win. You have a very good chance to win your wager if you’ve followed the first four steps.
5 – Home Series Strategy
The first four steps are all you need to win your first MLB wager. But I’m going to give you an MLB betting trick that gives you an even bigger edge.
The best teams in MLB don’t get swept at home. In fact, it’s rare for these teams to lose two games in a row at home.
This means that if you go back to the first step and add one more thing to your selection criteria that your chance of winning goes up.
You’re not going to find this perfect situation every day on the schedule, so you might have to wait a few days before you place your first wager. But when you find a strong team playing at home that lost their last home game facing a weak road team and the home pitcher is better than the road pitcher, you have as close to a sure thing as you’re ever going to find.
Of course, there are no sure things in MLB gambling, but this gives you the absolute best chance to win your first MLB wager.
Don’t panic if you don’t win your first MLB wager. Even if you don’t win your first two or three wagers, there’s no need to panic. Even the best MLB gamblers have losing streaks of three or more games from time to time.
The main thing to focus on is finding value and making as many wagers with value as you can. As long as you make more value wagers than non value wagers, the wins and losses will take care of themselves and eventually turn out on your side.
However, if you use the five steps on this page you have a good chance to win your first MLB wager. And if you hit a sport of bad luck and lose your first bet, the odds are even better you’re going to win your second bet using these steps.