If you want some advice about which sport gives you the best chance to win as a gambler, the NFL is at the bottom of the list. And yet, it’s extremely popular for gamblers. So, I’ve put together a list to help you learn how to have success betting on NFL games.
These five steps for NFL gambling success and profits are just a starting point. You still need to learn how to evaluate NFL games so you can make money. But I’ve never seen a better way to get started in print.
1 – The NFL Is Hard to Beat
If you’re looking for the most difficult sport to beat the sportsbooks, then the NFL is for you. The NFL is at the top of the popularity list for gamblers, especially in the United States. But it’s the last sport you should focus on as a sports gambler.
This isn’t to say that you can’t beat the sportsbooks while gambling on the NFL. Some gamblers do it consistently, but most aren’t making a profit.
The other steps on this page give you some solid places to look for profitable bets on NFL games, but the best piece of advice I can offer is to find a different sport and/or league to bet on. If you want to bet on football, bet on NCAA football. It offers far more profitable opportunities than the NFL.
If you’re willing to consider other sports, Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and NCAA basketball are all good options.
I prefer college sports and MLB because the sportsbooks don’t always set the best lines, especially in games that don’t have top teams playing.
2 – You Need a Huge Bankroll
If you want to be a casual NFL gambler, that’s fine. In fact, unless you’re prepared to dedicate yourself to being a top NFL gambler, your best course of action is to be a casual gambler.
Casual NFL gamblers just make bets based on their gut or their favorite team and make bets with money in their pocket. They don’t have a bankroll, and usually bet because they like having a little money on the game.
But if you want to be a professional NFL gambler, you need to have a large enough bankroll. Treat it like the lifeblood of your business and start with as much money as you can.
Two big reasons why you need a big NFL bankroll is because no matter how good you are at picking games, you’re going to have some losing weeks. And to make a decent amount of money betting on the NFL, you need to be able to afford placing larger bets.
The NFL season is only 17 weeks long plus the playoffs. Playoff games usually have even tighter lines than in the regular season, so you have a limited number of games to bet on. This means that you have to make large bets on the games where you can find value.
If you follow correct bet sizing based on your bankroll, it’s difficult to make a decent living betting on the NFL with less than a $100,000 bankroll. This large bankroll size lets you make wagers in the $1,000 to $3,000 per game range.
If you don’t have this much money to get started, it doesn’t mean you can’t make wagers. But you can’t expect to make much money working with a smaller bankroll, even if you win consistently. With a smaller bankroll, NFL betting is definitely more of a hobby than a way to make a decent living.
3 – Using the Moneyline Favorite Strategy
This is a simple strategy, and with a few advanced tweaks, it can provide long-term profits. It’s just like most NFL betting strategies in the fact that you can’t do it blindly and make long-term profits. But you can use it as the base of a profitable betting model.
When you bet on moneyline favorites, you have to bet more than you can win. Moneyline favorites are usually listed at -120 or more. You have to bet the amount behind the minus sign to win $100.
If you bet on three moneyline NFL favorites in one week at -210, – 230, and -300, you have to win all three bets to make a profit. If you only win two out of the three bets, you only win $200 on the two games you win. As you can see, you lose $210, $230, or $300 on the game you lose. This is a total loss of $10, $30, or $100.
You might be asking why I’m saying this can be a profitable strategy if you can still lose money winning two out of three wagers. Well, favorites are favorites for a reason. They tend to win most of the time. You just have to look at all of the favorites on the moneyline and evaluate games, so you can pick the ones that are most likely to win.
With good handicapping skills, you can learn how to win four out of five, five out of six, or better. This is how you can use the moneyline favorite strategy to make a profit in the NFL. One thing that you need to be very careful of w hen using this strategy is betting on too many road favorites. It’s much more likely for a road favorite to lose than a home favorite.
4 – Home Team Underdog Moneyline Strategy
This strategy is kind of the opposite of the one in the last section. When you bet on a moneyline underdog, you win more than you have to risk. This means that you don’t have to win even half of your NFL wagers in order to make a profit.
This doesn’t mean that it’s any easier to make a profit using this strategy than betting on moneyline favorites, but you can evaluate games to determine the home underdogs that have the best chance to win.
The reason why you only look at home teams that are underdogs and ignore road underdogs using this strategy is because teams playing at home are more likely to perform better than when they’re on the road.
If you bet on three games at +210, +230, and +300, you only have to win one of the three to make a profit. On the two games you lose, you lose a total of $200. On the game you win, you win $210, $230, or $300. This creates an overall profit of $10, $30, or $100.
You can see how this strategy can help you make profits on the NFL schedule.
5 – The Opposite Totals Strategy
This strategy is used mainly by NFL pro gamblers because it doesn’t make sense to most casual gamblers. But this is a main reason why it can be so profitable. You look at the games on the schedule for the week and see two teams that score a lot of points or you see two teams that don’t give up many points.
You can’t make this opposite totals wager on every game, but it’s a place to start when you’re evaluating games. Look at these games and lines and evaluate the chance that the opposite of what makes sense on the surface can be profitable.
It’s going to take some time to train your brain to see these opportunities, but it’s worth the effort.
The NFL is challenging for sports gamblers, but you can make a profit. You need to understand the challenge you’re up against and have a large bankroll. But if you have these two factors in place, you can start making profitable bets.
The strategies I laid out on this page can all work, but you can’t use any of them blindly. You must evaluate every game and line to make sure there’s true value before you place a wager. Take a close look at every game on the NFL schedule that fits these strategies, and you can learn how to make a long-term NFL profit.