Major League Baseball is not as popular for gamblers as the NFL, NBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. But it offers many benefits for smart sports gamblers, including a long season and thousands of games.
I’ve always been a baseball fan, and when I started betting on sports baseball was one of the main sports I bet on. It’s still one of the most popular sports that I bet on.
Here’s a list of 5 things I’ve learned over the years that help me when I bet on MLB.
1 – Start With Realistic Expectations
Do you want to win every MLB game you bet on? Of course you do. And so does every other gambler in the world. But the truth is that even professional baseball gamblers don’t win anywhere close to 100% of their wagers.
Instead of worrying about how many bets you win, change your focus to how much profit you make. Long term profit is the only thing that matters.
In fact, you can win more wagers than you lose and still lose money in the long run. And depending on how you bet, you can lose more wagers than you win and still make a long term profit.
Most MLB wagers are made using the moneyline or run line, which also has something like a moneyline attached to it.
100 wagers of $100 each is a total amount bet of $10,000. You don’t get anything back on the 60 losing wagers. On the 40 winning wagers you get back your $100 plus a profit of $155. This is a total of $255 return each time you win.
This is a total return of $10,200 on the 40 games you win. This is an overall profit of $200 on 100 bets, winning only 40% of the time.
This shows why you need to have realistic expectations.
It’s hard to win consistently betting on Major League Baseball, and even if you do beat the sportsbooks, it’s hard to make large enough wagers to make good money. In the example I just used, your average profit per game bet is only $2 using a $100 wager.
Even if you use a $1,000 bet size, your profit per game bet is only $20.
2 – Use Your Bankroll for Bet Sizing
In the last section you saw an example using a bet size of $100 per baseball game. You also saw the difference in return using a $1,000 bet size instead of a $100 bet size.
Bet sizing is important, and the truth is that professional baseball gamblers usually use a range of bet sizes instead of always betting the same amount on each game.
Your baseball wagering bankroll is one of the most important tools you have. And you have to protect it, because if you run out of money in your bankroll you’re not going to have any chance to make a profit betting on games.
You need to create a bet size range based on the amount of your bankroll. One of the main MLB betting mistakes that amateur MLB gamblers make is placing wagers too big for their bankroll.
I recommend a bet range of 1% to 3% of your total bankroll. This means that if you have a $100 bankroll you can only make bets of $1 to $3. It’s challenging to make much money with small wagers.
With a $1,000 bankroll, you can make bets of $10 to $30.
With a $10,000 bankroll, you can make wagers of $100 to $300.
The two most important things to take from this are you can’t bet too much of your bankroll on one game, and it takes a big bankroll to have a chance to make much money betting on baseball.
In the first section you learned about setting realistic expectations. Realistically you’re going to have a hard time winning a high percentage of your wagers. This means that your bet size has to be a small percentage of your bankroll so you can rise out a series of games going against you.
3 – Use the MLB Home Field Advantage
Major League Baseball isn’t the only sport with a strong home field advantage, but smart gamblers are able to take advantage of it for long term profits easier than in most other sports.
If you haven’t done it yet, you need to look at the home and road records for every MLB team over the last 5 or 10 years. Overall, the average win loss record at home is somewhere around 42 – 39 or 43 – 38. This doesn’t sound like a huge home field advantage, and it isn’t.
But look at what happens when you only look at the top 25 teams. Or what the home records are when you look at the top 20 teams, or the top 15 teams. You can quickly see that if you stay away from the worst teams in the league, the home field advantage is quite strong.
It’s best to just use this as a string point to help you evaluate games and lines, but even if you just use this information without digging deeper you can use it to make a profit.
If you identify a dozen or more MLB teams that have a strong home field advantage, it means that they almost never lose 2 home games in a row. It’s even rarer for them to lose 3 home games in a row. If you know these things, can you figure out how you can make a profit using this information?
When you identify things like this, what you’re really doing is looking at trends. Home field advantage isn’t the only trend in MLB you can profit from. Look for other trends in MLB to make more money every season.
4 – You Can’t See Some Things in the Box Scores
I want to come up with a MLB betting system that lets me plug in a bunch of statistics and produce predictions that I can bet while making long term profits. So does every other MLB gambler.
While you can create a system like this with enough effort, trial and error, and just plain work; the truth is that even if you can build this system it’s never going to be able to be perfect.
Some things that you need to use to improve your baseball betting results simply can’t be pulled from the statistics. Some things can only be seen and used when you watch games.
One of the most important things I’ve learned over the years betting on MLB is watching starting pitchers from start to start. Some starting pitchers get stronger as the year progresses, and others wear down.
This is something that you can see watching them in several starts in a row, that the box score doesn’t always show you.
Another thing that you can see watching games is when players get injured but don’t leave the game. Sometimes this doesn’t hurt their performance in upcoming games, but sometimes it lingers. You can’t read these injuries and results in the box scores.
Watch MLB games as often as possible. This will improve your betting results, even if you just use what you learn to make small adjustments to your system.
5 – Outwork Other MLB Gamblers
I know that most people aren’t interested in this, but the fact is that if you want to make profitable MLB bets you have to work harder at it than most other gamblers.
This isn’t because you’re not smart or because you’re lacking in any way. It’s because it’s hard to win when you bet on baseball. And not only do you need to work harder than most other sports gamblers; the truth is that you have to outwork the sportsbooks too.
You can’t take a few minutes to look at the standings and a few minutes looking at stats and make a bet based on your gut and the lines. This is what most baseball gamblers do, and most of them lose more than they win.
Make the decision to outwork everyone right now. This is how you’re going to become a winning MLB gambler now, and how you’re going to make profits in baseball for years to come.
The two most important things every MLB gambler has to learn are setting realistic expectations and the proper use of bankroll. You can’t expect to win many more than half your wagers, so you have to be careful with your bankroll.
You also need to understand the importance of watching as many baseball games as you can. Statistics are important, and you should use them, but there are many things that you can’t get from a box score alone.
Start using these 5 steps to MLB gambling success today and you’re going to start winning more of your wagers.