The NBA is one of the most challenging leagues for new sports gamblers. The sportsbooks do a good job of producing tight lines, which makes it more challenging to find value than in some other leagues. But if you’re convinced you want to bet on NBA games, I’ve put together some information that can help you.
Here’s a list of five questions that all beginning NBA gamblers need to answer. I’ve provided answers for each of the 5 questions, and once you learn what’s in this article you’re going to be ahead of all other new NBA gamblers.
1 – How Many Stars Does a Champion Need?
Every NBA champion needs a mix of good players, with at least a few great players. No single player can win championships, no matter how good he is. Even the best players need a good supporting cast to win a championship.
Over roughly the last 20 NBA seasons, a trend has emerged. Most championship NBA teams have two or three stars that have learned to work together. These teams also have a strong group of supporting players, because even two or three stars need some help.
But what you don’t see often is a team with a single great player winning an NBA championship. Champions need at least two great players.
The question is how is this information valuable to you as an NBA gambler?
The obvious 1st place is betting on futures. If you’re looking to place money on the future championship, this is valuable information.
But you also need to use this information during the regular season to make profitable wagers. You have many more wagering opportunities during the regular season than making futures wagers.
Once you identify the teams that have a realistic chance to win a championship, this information is going to help you evaluate games throughout the season. Here’s just one way this information can help you. Start tracking how many home games championship caliber teams lose.
And then start tracking how many home games championship caliber teams lose against teams that finish in the bottom half of the standings. Teams with two or three star players tend to dominate at home, especially against weaker teams. Do you think you can use this information to make profitable wagers?
2 – Should You Use Overall Season Stats for Evaluation?
This is one of the worst mistakes I see NBA gamblers make. And I see it every season, and some gamblers never seem to learn how dangerous it is.
What I’m talking about is using overall season statistics to evaluate NBA games. This is mind boggling to me, because overall statistics are a combination of every possible variable. But all of the variables aren’t resent in each game.
A team is either playing at home or on the road. And the performance for each team is different at home and on the road. So why would you look at a combination of the two when you have all of the information available that match the current situation?
Use the statistics that are relevant to the current game situation, and ignore everything else. In fact, I can’t think of a single case where using overall statistics is better than using situation specific ones. I can’t even think of a situation where it’s as good.
Today there’s no excuse for being lazy, and that’s what you’re doing if you use overall stats. The split stats are readily available and you can find them just as fast as you can find overall stats.
3 – Are the Playoffs the Same as the Regular Season for Gamblers?
To give you a short answer, the playoffs are not the same as the regular season in the NBA. Each game is played with a higher level of intensity, as each game is more important than any game in the regular season.
Coaches are coaching to win every game in the regular NBA season, but not the same as in the playoffs. Players also play with more intensity overall in the playoffs.
I know this doesn’t make sense on some level. Professional athletes should be giving 100% in every game. But the truth is that many games in the regular season don’t mean much in the overall scheme of the NBA season.
During the regular season, coaches know that they have a long season and a long road n the playoffs to win a championship, so they may rest key players during the regular NBA season. And star players get rested late in games that are already decided.
Another thing you need to know about the NBA playoffs is that home court advantage is more important than in the regular season. The best NBA teams don’t lose games on their home court in the playoffs, because they can’t afford to give their opponent an advantage in the series.
You need to take all of these things into account when you’re evaluating NBA playoff games.
4 – What Is the Secret Statistic?
I’m going to give you some surprising NBA betting tips that I’ve been using for several years to improve my results. When I give it to you, the odds are that you’re going to dismiss it. But this is the mistake that most NBA gamblers make. They ignore this key indicator of an NBA team’s ability to win.
You can’t ignore any important statistical category, but you also can’t afford to overvalue any individual stat either. 3 point shooting and scoring are the main things that new NBA gamblers focus on, and these are important. But they aren’t necessarily the most important things to focus on.
Here’s the secret statistic. Rebounding is one of the most important statistics in the NBA, yet most new gamblers either ignore it or don’t use it much when they’re evaluating games.
The team that controls the boards on both ends of the court is likely to win. When you think about what controlling the boards means, this makes sense. The team that gets more offensive rebounds has a better chance to score more points. The team that gets more defensive rebounds limits the other teams’ opportunities to score.
Immediately start tracking how effective each team in the NBA is on the offensive and defensive glass. Look at the teams they play, and where the opposing teams rank in rebounding. You’re going to find that the team with the rebounding advantage when you evaluate NBA games is going to have an advantage in the game.
5 – How Do I Use the Totals Line for Profit?
Most sports have a version of the totals or over under line. It works in the NBA the same as in most sports. The sportsbooks set a total number, and you bet if the combined score of both teams is going to be under the number or over the number.
Evaluating games for the totals line seems to be simple. But new NBA gamblers quickly learn that it’s not as simple as it appears.
And this is only if there’s value to be found. Many of these games don’t offer value on either side of the total.
The same is true for two teams that don’t score much. If there’s value to be had, it’s usually on the over, not the under.
Don’t make the mistake of just looking at the average points scored by each team when you’re making a wager on the total. Instead, look at the splits like I recommended above, and look at how well each team performs against similar teams in the past.
The answers to the five questions listed above are just the start of your journey to becoming a successful NBA gambler. These answers are a good place to start, but your work is far from being completed.
Your main job as an NBA gambler is to learn how to evaluate games to find lines that offer value. Once you learn how to do this consistently, your profits are going to follow.
Now that you know the answers to these five questions to get started, find other questions that you can answer that lead to higher profits. Keep asking questions and finding answers and you can become a successful NBA gambler.