Every newbie to the NFL gambling scene must conduct research prior to making their first bet.
You don’t want to enter this field without first learning basic but important disciplinary measures.
This article covers 3 NFL gambling strategies you need to know before you even research betting lines for any game.
The following are strategies most new bettors neglect, which if they’re not careful may cost them in the long-run. Learning them upfront will allow you to bet smart and with a purpose for each game you wager.
You will bet smart, know how to handle your profits and how to bet each game for any week in moderation to avoid over-betting a specific game, or as the cliche states, ‘avoid putting all your eggs in one basket.’
1- Set a Yearly Bankroll
The amount in the bankroll is up to you but once you set it for the season, don’t deviate from it. Some of us might get away with a lucrative bankroll and set aside four-figures for the upcoming season, while others might only have a few hundred to work with.
Now, take that number. For this article, we’ll say your bankroll is $2,040. Divide $2,040 by 17, which equals $120.
This is your initial weekly betting allowance. Now, as you win, you can place your original wager back into your bankroll, obviously increasing the allowance.
Use this example.
You bet $120 in Week 1 and you win $160. You can place the $120 back into your bankroll which allows you to bet up to $127.50 in the weeks after since you still have your original $2,040. Just divide $2,040 by 16, which gives you $127.50.
Keep the $40 in profits for yourself. This is an important topic discussed in the next section, but for now, let’s focus on the yearly and weekly bankroll.
Consider the opposite scenario.
If you bet $120 during Week 1 and you don’t win any of it back, then you only bet $120 in Week 2 and not a dime more. Only bet more than your original allotted weekly allowance for the season, in this case $120, if you win the wager back.
If you win the $120 back for a second week in a row, you’re still at your $2,040. Again, put the profits somewhere else and divide $2,040 by 15. Now you can bet at least $136 per week for the remaining 15 weeks of the season.
One more word of caution before we move on.
Don’t attempt what I’ve seen others try, which is to bet more than their weekly bankroll allows, then say they’ll bet the lesser amount the following week to make up the difference. This is a game that never ends well for even experienced gamblers.
They’ll see a game or games they like, bet more than their weekly allowance, lose the bet, then pull money out of next week’s pool. If we’re going with the original $120 a week wager, they’ll bet $160 while stating they’ll just bet $80 the following week.
This is a risk that will catch up to you and when it does, it begins a domino effect to make up the difference. Be smart and don’t play this game.
2- Resist Adding Profits to Your Bankroll
Whether your bankroll is $500, $1,000 or $5,000, it’s all you should wager for that given season. Set your NFL bankroll aside and don’t add to it, whether you’re winning or losing. It’s a dangerous game when you add profits.
What always happens in this situation is that you’ll wager more than your allotted weekly amount. As stated in the above section, increase your weekly betting allowance only with money that you previously wagered, not profits earned.
You can invest your profits in a different realm like home improvement, a down payment on a new vehicle, whatever you decide. But don’t put it back into a wager on next week’s Monday Night Football game because the spread or over/under looks good.
If you wager $40 on a game that wins you $60, keep the $20 you earned and reinsert the $40 into your bankroll. That’s still an extra $40 that you can bet the following week as it is.
You might place all of your earnings—the $40 bet plus the $20 profit—into a separate account. If you went this route, then the weekly $120 allotted would go for each week of bets, not just Week 1.
And doing this is okay. If given the choice, it’s my preferred route. Especially since I’ve already set aside four-figures in this example.
It’s easy to get caught up placing bets on NFL games, especially when you’re winning. I know many people who place their profits into next week’s wagers.
Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose.
Every time they place their profits back into their annual bankroll, there’s a risk of losing everything they earned from the previous weeks.
Bet no more money than you set aside for any season.
And bet no more money than what’s allotted to you for any week. Build your weekly betting allowance by winning back what you wagered and cash out those profits just like you might cash out a stock that you hit big on.
3- Set a Max Number or Percentage for Each Bet
This number depends on how many games you wager each week. There are between 14 and 16 games on the schedule, the lesser number of games occurring during the bye weeks.
Some weeks, fewer games may catch your eye and other weeks, you might like more matchups.
Sticking with the $2,040 per season scenario, suppose it’s Week 1 and you have $120 to bet.
You like 3 games, but one game stands out more than the others. Perhaps you like the betting line. You wager more money on this game.
This is where you need to stop and take a hard-to-swallow pill. While the line looks favorable, don’t bet a boatload into this or any game on the schedule.
Nothing, not even a 32nd ranked offense playing the 1st ranked defense, is a guarantee to cover a spread.
To lessen the risk of losing a lot of money, set a max percentage for your highest bet. You will always bet more on games that catch your eye. Which is okay if you stick to the weekly allowance in your annual bankroll.
Bet a specific percentage of your weekly wager on games.
Let’s return to our Week 1 example. You love one of the 3 games you decided to place a bet on. The spread looks good, and the favored team last season covered the spread often. You bet more on this game.
In this scenario, don’t allow this bet to rise over 20% higher than your next highest bet. Your max bet in this scenario is $60 on your primary game, $36, or 30% on the second game, and $24, or 20% on the third game.
This strategy is important to consider because with no guarantees in the NFL betting world, it’s easy for one to lose a huge bet.
If the losing team covers the spread in garbage time and you lose the $60 bet and you still won the games where you bet $36 and $24 and even profited a little, you still have the $60 from the other two bets to reinsert into the bankroll plus profits from those bets to take home.
If you bet 75% or $90 of your weekly allowance on that game like you wanted to, you lost far more money, and only have $30 to put back into the bankroll if you won the other two bets.
Now, assume there are 5 games you like instead of 3.
You do the math and realize you can bet $48 (40%) on the game you’re most confident will end in your favor. The next highest bet should be no less than $24, or 20% of your weekly allowance. This still gives you $48 to wager on the final three games.
This strategy follows the old, but true cliche of “not putting all your eggs in one basket.”
Sure, the Number 1 offense playing the Number 27 defense looks like a sure winner, but if that team has a history of backing in prevent when they’re up by 21 with a 14.5-point spread, it’s unwise to place more than a responsible percentage of your given allowance on it.
Figure out the percentages each week before you place your first bet. And remember, don’t let your highest bet exceed 20% of your second highest.
It’s important to use these 3 strategies several weeks before the season, which allows for actual research for the upcoming season.
Set the annual bankroll and don’t deviate from it. Divide your bankroll by 17 for the 17 weeks in the NFL season and use the quotient for your average wager.
This number can rise throughout the season if you’re winning your bets. Don’t place your profits into the bankroll. This is money you won, and it’s better to invest somewhere other than risking it the following week. However, you can always reinsert your original wagers.
Finally, set a max percentage each week. Decide how many games you’re betting and set your max bet no more than 20% higher than your second highest bet. This lessens the risk of you losing a majority of your money to one bet.
Do you have any other betting suggestions? Leave a comment and let me know.